Post-match report · Esports World Cup 2026 · 15 August 2026
Читать по-русскиThe MongolZ — Natus Vincere
The MongolZ8
Natus Vincere13The MongolZ came back into the map through heavy work on mid positions, but after the side switch they lost the initiative and won only two rounds out of nine. Natus Vincere patiently delayed the first contacts and converted all five of their T openings without mistakes.
How the map went
The MongolZNatus Vincerepistol rounds carry a dot, rounds thrown away are outlined
What decided the map
Natus Vincere built their offense around late first contacts, with four of five successful openings coming from Apartments and the Palace areas.
The median timecode of a won first duel was 0:58; two openings came from Palace Interior, one from Palace Alley and one from Apartments. All 5 opening kills were converted into wins — 100% against the Mirage benchmark of 67%.
R13R15R17R21The MongolZ's offense regularly invested in blocking mid sightlines, even when the final destination was A Site.
Across 12 T rounds, the team sent 19 grenades into Window in 10 rounds, 11 into Connector in 9 rounds and 10 into Jungle in 7 rounds. They had played this way before: recurring opening packages included smokes in Middle and Window together with a molotov in Connector.
R5R8The MongolZ's own openings did not give their defense a stable advantage: half of those rounds were still lost.
On CT, the team won the first duel 4 times but took only 2 of those rounds — a 50% conversion rate against the Mirage benchmark of 67%. The openings were split between B Site, Ticket, Underpass and Window.
R14R16R19R20
What they did differently
- The MongolZ on attack: rounds R8, R12 match none of their own 85 rounds on this map from the last 8 matches — 0.52, 0.63 against their usual 0.73 — biggest change: spacing between players, routes out of spawn, zones taken early · won 2 of 2
- Natus Vincere on attack: rounds R20 match none of their own 74 rounds on this map from the last 8 matches — 0.43 against their usual 0.66 — biggest change: zones taken early, opening utility · won 0 of 1
- The MongolZ CT — never took the first contact on defense in 9 full-buy rounds, usually 14 of 62
What breaks their defense
The MongolZ
- 6 rounds with the same opening (force buy): the attack wins only 17% against their usual 44%, the hit goes A in 100%
- 11 rounds with the same opening (force buy): the attack wins only 18% against their usual 44%, the hit goes B in 67%
- 9 rounds with the same opening (eco): the attack wins only 0% against their usual 23%
Natus Vincere
- 9 rounds with the same opening (force buy): the attack wins 67% against their usual 48%, the hit goes B in 100%
Their frequent tactics
The MongolZ on attack
- 7 rounds: smoke into Window at 0:02 → smoke into Middle at 0:03 → molotov into Connector at 0:09 → flash into Middle at 0:09 → flash into Top Mid at 0:10; the hit goes A in 50%; they win 71% against their usual 40%; first contact at 11.7s.Steps
- 3 rounds: smoke into Window at 0:02 → smoke into Middle at 0:03 → flash into Middle at 0:08 → flash into Palace at 0:09 → molotov into Connector at 0:09; the hit goes A in 100%; they win 33% against their usual 40%; first contact at 25.5s.
Natus Vincere on attack
- 3 rounds: smoke into Window at 0:02 → smoke into Middle at 0:04 → molotov into Window at 0:10 → 2× HE into Connector at 0:12; the hit goes A in 100%; they win 33% against their usual 49%; first contact at 12.7s.Steps
- 3 rounds: smoke into Window at 0:02 → smoke into Middle at 0:04 → molotov into Window at 0:09 → HE into Connector at 0:12; the hit goes B in 100%; they win 33% against their usual 49%; first contact at 28.2s.
Natus Vincere on defense
- 3 rounds: molotov into A Ramp at 0:05 → 2× flash into Middle at 0:09 → molotov into Top Mid at 0:10 → smoke into Connector at 0:10; they win 67% against their usual 57%; first contact at 29.4s.Steps
- 3 rounds: molotov into A Ramp at 0:06 → flash into Middle at 0:07 → HE into Window at 0:09 → smoke into Connector at 0:12 → molotov into Top Mid at 0:13; the opponent hit A in 100%; they win 0% against their usual 57%; first contact at 22.7s.
How to use this
Against The MongolZ
- Keep a player in Palace Interior or Palace Alley until the final minute: in this CT half, The MongolZ did not make a single first push across 9 full buys, while makazze's opening at 1:05 and b1t's at 1:16 won rounds for Natus Vincere.
- Wait out the utility in B Apartments before applying pressure again: The MongolZ invested 11 grenades there in 8 of 9 CT rounds.
- Block Window and check Ticket before contacting A Site: 910 previously occupied these positions in 15 and 11 of 54 CT rounds respectively, taking the AWP in 30 of 54.
Against Natus Vincere
- Reinforce Palace Interior after 1:00: makazze opened a round from there at 1:05, b1t at 1:16, and the Palace and Apartments areas produced four of five successful T openings overall.
- Before hitting A Site, flash b1t's and w0nderful's positions: b1t was previously on A Site in 34 of 70 CT rounds, while w0nderful was there in 12 of 70.
- Pressure Catwalk after cutting off Window and Connector: Natus Vincere lost three players there on CT, and none of those deaths was traded.
How it looked
- R8
Mid screens recovered the round after an early loss
After bLitz died on A Ramp at 0:14, The MongolZ were left with four players, and the loss was not traded. The team did not accelerate: the opening smokes went into Window at 0:02 and Middle at 0:05, while at 0:40 and 0:43 910 blocked Window and Jungle again. By the late entry, Techno4K was in Jungle, DarkMeister had moved toward Stairs, and tikuak held Palace Interior — three different positions around A Site denied the defense a single point to hold. This force buy started a five-round streak for The MongolZ.
After this opening (26 similar rounds on the map on a force buy): the hit goes A in 94% against the map's usual 63%.
Steps - R13
Pistol round through delayed contact in Apartments
Before entering B Site, Natus Vincere blocked Window with a smoke at 0:02, then Aleksib threw a smoke into Connector at 0:33 and a molotov into Window at 0:36. The first contact came only at 0:48: b1t caught Techno4K in Apartments, and the defender's death was not traded. bLitz rotated through Window and Market but died in Shop three seconds later, also without a response, making the situation T5 — CT3. The round showed how mid utility supported a late hit on B Site.
After this opening (8 similar rounds on the map on an eco): the hit goes B in 83% against the map's usual 36%; the bomb goes down in 75% of rounds against 37%; the attack takes the round in 75% against 26%.
Steps - R16 · 0:44
910's usual position produced a rare CT response
910 opened the round with the AWP from Ticket at 0:21 — one of his usual CT positions: Ticket appeared in 11 of 54 historical rounds, and he took the AWP in 30 of 54. After two response kills from makazze, the defense was in a T4 — CT3 disadvantage, but DarkMeister held Ticket and restored parity with two contacts on A Site. The decisive layer remained in Jungle: at 0:44, Techno4K stopped b1t in Palace Interior, after which the offense's chance dropped from 56% to 19%. This was one of two cases in which The MongolZ converted a CT opening into a round.
After this opening (156 similar rounds on the map on a full buy): the hit goes A in 95% against the map's usual 61%.
Steps - R17
Palace waited for its timing
Natus Vincere started with smokes in Window and Middle at 0:02 and 0:04, but delayed the first contact until 1:05. By that point, Techno4K had moved through A Ramp into Palace and was isolated against makazze in Palace Interior; his death was not traded. At the same time, w0nderful held the line from A Ramp to Jungle, so the defense lost two layers around A Site at once. Even tikuak's response on b1t was immediately traded by Aleksib from Underpass, preserving Natus Vincere's advantage.
After this opening (130 similar rounds on the map on a full buy): the hit goes A in 80% against the map's usual 61%.
Steps
The opening as a prediction
- R13
After this opening (7 similar rounds on the map on an eco): the hit goes B in 100% against the map's usual 36%; the bomb goes down in 71% of rounds against 38%; the attack takes the round in 71% against 26%.
- R21
After this opening (101 similar rounds on the map on a force buy): the hit goes A in 86% against the map's usual 62%; the bomb goes down in 28% of rounds against 51%; first contact at 24.7s against the usual 20.2s.
- R8
After this opening (69 similar rounds on the map on a force buy): the hit goes A in 98% against the map's usual 62%; the bomb goes down in 71% of rounds against 51%.
Where money did not decide
- The MongolZ took 3 rounds on a force buy against a full buy (R4, R8, R20) — on this map such rounds are won 37% of the time
- Natus Vincere took pistol R1 and then won 2 rounds more in a row
- Natus Vincere took pistol R13 and then won 2 rounds more in a row
Team habits and markers
roles, setups, signature spots — expand
The MongolZ
- AWP: 910 — 30 of 54 rounds; positions: Window, Ticket
- setup 2 A + 2 B + 1 Mid — 17 of 54
- setup 1 A + 2 B + 2 Mid — 8 of 54
- tikuak pushed Palace Interior — 6 times, around 0:24; the AWPer in those rounds played Ticket
- bLitz pushed Palace Interior — 4 times, around 0:23; the AWPer in those rounds played Ticket
- AWP: 910 — 32 of 67 rounds; positions: Top Mid, A Ramp
- setup 1 A + 1 B + 3 Mid — 13 of 67
- setup 1 A + 2 B + 2 Mid — 9 of 67
- bLitz pushed Middle — 2 times, around 0:22; the AWPer in those rounds played Top Mid
- DarkMeister pushed Catwalk — 1 time, around 0:24; the AWPer in those rounds played Top Mid
Natus Vincere
- AWP: w0nderful — 28 of 70 rounds; positions: Window, A Site
- setup 1 A + 2 B + 2 Mid — 22 of 70
- setup 2 A + 2 B + 1 Mid — 14 of 70
- b1t pushed Palace Interior — 7 times, around 0:22; the AWPer in those rounds played A Site
- w0nderful pushed Palace Interior — 1 time, around 0:22 (he was the AWPer)
- AWP: w0nderful — 15 of 68 rounds; positions: Top Mid, A Ramp
- setup 1 A + 1 B + 3 Mid — 13 of 68
- setup 2 A + 1 B + 2 Mid — 8 of 68
- iM pushed Catwalk — 3 times, around 0:21; the AWPer in those rounds played B Short
- Aleksib pushed Catwalk — 2 times, around 0:22; the AWPer in those rounds played B Short
- never pushed Middle (their opponents — 3 times)
Marks show the 20-second position, “×N” a signature spot.
Map numbers
| Team and side | Rounds | Opening duels won | Conversion | Median | Trades | Main utility zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The MongolZ T | 6/12 | 4 | 75% | 0:32 | 9% | Window · 19 |
| The MongolZ CT | 2/9 | 4 | 50% | 0:40 | 27% | B Apartments · 11 |
| Natus Vincere T | 7/9 | 5 | 100% | 0:58 | 14% | Window · 20 |
| Natus Vincere CT | 6/12 | 8 | 62% | 0:44 | 31% | B Apartments · 19 |
Conversion — rounds won after winning the opening duel; trades — deaths avenged within five seconds.
Pistol rounds
- R1 — Natus Vincere (CT)
- R13 — Natus Vincere (T)
Streaks
- Natus Vincere — 3 rounds in a row (R1–R3)
- Natus Vincere — 3 rounds in a row (R5–R7)
- The MongolZ — 5 rounds in a row (R8–R12)
- Natus Vincere — 3 rounds in a row (R13–R15)
- Natus Vincere — 3 rounds in a row (R17–R19)
Rounds thrown away
- R3 — T lost the round holding a 74% chance
- R7 — T lost the round holding a 79% chance
- R16 — T lost the round holding a 79% chance
- R4 — CT lost the round holding a 74% chance
Bottom line
Natus Vincere won Mirage through patience: their offense did not rush the first duel and converted every advantage they gained. The MongolZ found a workable T plan through mid utility, but an overly passive defense gave late exits from Palace enough time and space.
Method and privacy
- Every number is collected from the demo itself, automatically. The editor only proofreads the finished text.
- “Baseline” means averages across the platform's corpus — hundreds of thousands of rounds from official matches. Round win probabilities come from that corpus, not from model guesses.
- Only official matches with open HLTV demos are published. Client demos and strategies are never published and never used in anyone else's report.